The Technological Arms Race for Nuclear (In)visibility

An Interactive Simulation Model

Supplement to: David M. Allison & Stephen Herzog (2025). Risk Analysis.

Control Panel

Preset Scenarios

DET "Moonshot"

Opportunistic Breakout

Proliferation-Enabling Technologies (PET)

Doubling Time (months) 36

Capability Ceiling (Pₘₐₓ) 120

Detection & Proliferation Dynamics

Detection Floor (π₀) 0.10

Opportunism Threshold (τ) 40

Opportunism Boost (η) 3.0

Initial Conditions

Initial PET Capability (P₀) 20

Initial DET Capability (D₀) 50

Cumulative Risk R(10)

0.000

P(At Least One Undetected Nuclear Breakout)

0.00%

Note: This model is intended as a conceptual framework, not a forecast. Its purpose is to help users explore how imbalances in technology growth may shape proliferation risks and inform strategic choices.